Thirty Five Percent

Early odds against the Democrats

by Tom Adkins
12/16/03

Lay your money down, folks. Thirty-five percent. That's my over/under prediction for the Fall of 2004. I think the Democrat candidate will get less than 35% of the vote in the November Presidential election. Wanna take that bet?

For those who don’t understand the fine art of betting, an “over/under” bet works like this: Let’s say you visit your favorite bookie. You ask him for the over/under on the Democrat in the Presidential race. If he says “thirty-five percent,” that means you can either bet Democrats will get over 35% or under 35%. Since bookies make money when there is the same money bet on each side, they “lay odds” if one contender is heavily favored. In the case of the 2004 elections, a bookie has to give an “over/under” to get even money on the Democrat.

So here I am. Tom Adkins, Election Bookie. The over/under is 35%. You in?

Now, you might think most people wouldn’t even take that bet. You’re right. Most people are smart. And they’ve been getting smarter. They’ve been paying attention to all those times Democrats have been wrong over the years, and it’s starting to add up. Welfare, Social Security, high taxes, Vietnam, drugs, abortion, gun control, nuisance lawsuits, bad schools…heck, it’s almost impossible to find anything Democrats have been right about. It’s been coming for awhile. Today, forty percent of Americans consider themselves conservative.

As compared to only eighteen percent liberal.

So how did Democrats survive? Simple. On the Strip of Life, they distracted us with neon and flashing lights, then took our money like a one-armed bandit. As the saying goes, nobody ever went broke betting against American common sense.

But since September 11th, Americans sobered up and played it straight. And when it comes to big bets like national security, America’s defense has been the obvious Democrat “tell.” Since the liberal revolution, whatever is best for America? Democrats took the other side: knuckle under to the Soviets. Give away the Panama Canal. Placate the North Koreans. Land for peace. Chinese "strategic partners." Appease the terrorists. This week, Democrats waited precisely 24 hours after Saddam Hussein's capture before bitching. Now, John Kerry, Hillary Clinton, Joe Lieberman, and the rest are insisting we reward all those nations who refused to ante up in the war to free Iraq, an obvious disincentive for future players.

In fact, many people are accusing Democrats of playing without a full deck. Just listen to Howard Dean talk for 60 seconds, and you wonder who on Earth would actually take such a nutcase seriously. But there they are! Lined up 10 deep! Easy marks.

Democrats are apparently betting the entire election on things going badly for America. They tipped their socialist hand. Their leaders don’t like American freedom. Their doltish followers don’t know any better. The reasonable have quietly left the table. Only the Kool Aid drinkers remain. They keep placing their entire wad on the roulette wheel and betting “black.” But the ball keeps falling on “red, white and blue.” In their 40-year march to the left, Democrats are finally running out of chips.

About the only place Democrats are getting serious support is from other countries and their billionaires, with their anti-American games. George Soros, fat-cat hedge-fund operator has been ranting that defeating George Bush is a matter of “life and death.” So far, he’s given $30 million to Democrat groups. But asked if he’d pledge his entire $7 billion fortune to defeat George Bush, Soros hedged, “If someone would guarantee it.” The Goofy Greek is covering his own bet!

Well, Mr Soros, I guarantee this: Bush wins big. Real big. C’mon…I’ll lay odds!

To make a long story short, Democrats have become exposed. They moved so far to the left that everyone except the stupid, foolish or blind can see their America-hating hand. While that may represent a significant number of Americans, I don’t think it will crack 35% at the voting booth.

So, even with the legendary Democrat voter fraud, the media pounding away against George Bush, and even with thick wallet, thin-brained international billionaires, Democrats are going to lose big in 11 months. I’ll bet on it.

Now, if you’ll don’t mind, I’m gonna go trolling at the Howard Dean for President website. There’s a sucker born every minute. And 35% of ‘em think Bush doesn't stand a chance.