Fred Is Out

Who stands to gain?

Editor's Note: Thomas's commentary is in blue and Marcie's is in purple.

Former Senator Fred Thompson has bowed out of the race for the Republican nomination to be President. There is some speculation as to why he dropped out -- a story released the day of his announcement said his mother was sick, but a contradictory story, sourced by a staffer, stated his paltry finish in South Carolina was the reason. Regardless of the reason, the fact remains that the closest true conservative has departed the stage. He leaves behind the conservative mantle, and the question remains as to who benefits from this turn of events. We will explain who does and does not reap the benefits of his departure. Some may disagree with us, but as Thomas is often fond of reminding people, we only read the tea leaves.

Say what you want about Ron Paul, but the fact remains that he was the closest thing to a real conservative running for the nomination, next to Fred himself. (Yes, it's painful to admit that, but it can't be denied.) He stands for smaller government, a cutting of the federal bureaucracy, and a severe overhaul of the Internal Revenue Service. (Actually, he's called for its abolishment, but fat chance of that happening anytime soon.) The problem is that Ron Paul won't benefit one iota from Fred's departure. He is too far out of the mainstream to be taken seriously, and to date he hasn't won a single primary state. That has to gall the Paul-bats out there after his sweeping victory in the straw polls. It just goes to show who was fluffing his number, and why Ron Paul sits on the brink of obscurity.

Sure he is a former Governor and Baptist preacher, but Mike Huckabee also will not benefit from Fred bowing out. He slammed the door hard on Governor Huckabee in the debate prior to his anticipated departure. Fredheads know that Governor Huckabee is no conservative, so they will not be flocking to his banner. He ten year record belies his current statement, and his flat refusal to be open and honest about his record should be enough to raise red flags for conservatives. While a couple of Fredheads may decide to jump on his bandwagon, the majority will not. Governor Huckabee should actually be joining Fred soon in the respect of watching the rest of this unfold from the sidelines. One primary win is not going to impress many people.

If anyone is arrogant enough to try and seize the conservative mantle it's John McCain. Mr. Political Opportunist has been touting himself as the next Reagan since the campaign started, and conservatives know he's lying. He's not a conservative. A real conservative isn't going to be endorsed by the media the way John McCain has been. He's spent the last few years sticking his thumb in the eye of the GOP base; petulant outbursts and antics all because he wasn't the nominee in 2000. (Newsflash to John McCain, you wouldn't have beat Al Gore then just like you can't beat Senators Clinton and Obama now.) The asininity of John McCain is the fact that he's acting a lot like Hillary -- where he feels it's his turn at the nomination -- and not much like Ronald Reagan. I'm sure John McCain wasn't happy when Fred didn't endorse him, but Fred's no dummy. He knows a liberal when he sees them. They may have been colleagues in the Senate, but Fred knows how John McCain has acted, and it's anything but a conservative.

He led the pack through most of the early campaign season, but Rudy Giuliani has dropped off over the last few months. Both Mitt Romney and John McCain have closed the gap, and we have a literal horse race now. But just as Fred had problems with Mike Huckabee, he also has some problems with Rudy Giuliani. Granted, Mayor Giuliani is more conservative that John McCain on the four issues that matter most this election cycle, but as he continues to slide there is no chance that Fred would endorse him. But it is not necessarily an endorsement that people are looking for. They are looking for a leader to step up and take the mantle. As yet no one has tried, and I do not think that Mayor Giuliani would pick up the moniker. Too many people would throw a fit thanks to their bias against his social stances, and a refusal to acknowledge the conservative ideals he does have.

That leaves us with former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney. Both on the Internet and in the real world, many Fredheads that are friends of ours have said they are throwing their support to him in the hopes that they can stop John McCain, and ensure a conservative running against Senator Clinton or Senator Obama. This was to be expected when Fred dropped out as he was clearly the only candidate who could have taken the mantle. He has the conservative credentials, the charisma, and the ideas that were the foundation of conservatives almost everywhere. We know a lot of people dislike him for personal reasons, but in a race to ensure that we stay on offense in this war, stimulate our economy, deal with the immigration problem, and keep the federal courts moving back to where they belong Mitt Romney has the intelligence, tenacity, and ideas to lead the nation for the next four-to-eight years. He stands to gain the most from Fred exiting the stage, and it's already showing in the primary polls.

It is sad that Fred Thompson dropped out of the race, but his departure was almost a foregone conclusion, and it has opened the door for a real conservative to step up and take his place. The Huckabee and McCain camps might try to snatch up the mantle, but that comes out of arrogance, and not intelligence. Both men are neo-populist politicians who see no problem in pandering to the base, basically treating us like fools because neither one respects the acumen the GOP base possesses. Had Mayor Giuliani actually campaigned in the early states instead of waiting for Florida, and banking everything on that state, he might have stood a decent chance of winning the nomination. Governor Romney does have the inside track to the moniker that Fred possessed, and to the nomination itself.

He is a scholar of history, especially American history, and the United States Constitution. She has finished her undergrad studies, graduating with a BA in English and history and will move onto law school this fall where she will specialize in Constitutional Law. Together, Thomas and Marcie form the vanguard of conservative opinion at Hamilton, Madison, and Jay -- a blogging site devoted to advancing the conservative cause by challenging the liberal lies and deceit spread by the media, and espoused by the Left in general. Both are expert debaters, and have beaten many liberals into submission with their collective wit, and unmatched knowledge. The pair is married, and resides in Arizona

Archives of "Throwing Down the Gauntlet"

Send an e mail to Thomas and Marcie Clark

Check out Thomas and Marcie's blog: Hamilton, Madison, and Jay