Reporting As Ordered

Anatomy of a surge

Editor's Note: Thomas's commentary is in blue and Marcie's is in purple.

This column is designed to be a prediction of what will be presented by General David Petreus on 11 September when he returns to give the first progress report on the surge strategy in Iraq. He will not be reporting to congress alone. He will also speak with the president, and there is talk of him releasing a synopsis report to the general public. The facts we are about to present are not made up out of thin air. They have been reported by people like: Michael Yon and Bill Roggio, embedded bloggers; Max Boot, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations; Victor Davis Hanson and Michael Ledeen of National Review Online; Bill Kristol of the Weekly Standard; John Burns, New York Times Baghdad bureau chief; and Michael O'Hanlon and Kenneth Pollack of the Brookings Institute. These men have either been over to Iraq since the surge's beginning, or they have watched events unfold, and analyzed what is occurring. They all concur on one important thing: The surge is working, and should be allowed to come to full fruition.

In 2003 the United States and a coalition of approximately forty nations invaded Iraq in an effort to end the regime of Saddam Hussein, and sever his ties to terrorists in the region. From the end of major operations up until March of 2008 the coalition had it's positives and negatives. Unfortunately, the negatives vastly outweighed the success we have achieved in the nation, and almost always took point in any debate or conversation about the war. Many prominent areas in Iraq were under siege daily from al-Qaeda and the native insurgency, the latter of which was fueled by the sectarian violence that erupted under the watchful eye of the now-deceased Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Moqtada al-Sadr and his Mahdi militia had set up shop in many of Baghdad's surrounding areas and carried out devastating attacks on Iraqi civilians (especially Sunnis), and coalition forces. Troop casualty and death levels maintained a static, morale-depleting level over the course of four years, with very little alleviation.

Enter General David Petraeus, the man behind the Army's newly-revised counterinsurgency handbook. His idea was to bring troop levels up to 160,000 soldiers, sailors, airmen, and Marines working in and around Iraq, and to lead a pro-active assault against al-Qaeda and the native insurgency, By the time the surge began, many of the foes we were dealing with in Iraq were foreign fighters, not Iraqis. Those within the insurgency were working precipitously with al Qaeda in their continuing fight against our forces. Working in concert with the Iraqi Security Forces we initiated a program where we would enter a town or province, root out the al Qaeda/insurgent presence there, and stay to maintain security. Originally, this didn't occur, and led to many towns falling back into al Qaeda hands. The change in strategy has brought about a significant change in Iraq, and it has al Qaeda on the ropes. They no longer try to engage our forces directly, choosing to rely on improvised explosive device/explosively formed penetrater (IED/EFP) attacks, ambushes, and car bombings. Prior to the surge's full implementation, al Qaeda and insurgents were utilizing chlorine car bombs; a new, deadly level of attack that we had yet to face.

What has changed since the surge's start? The military profile on the ground is now not nearly as dangerous as it once was. Attacks and coalition deaths are down. Civilian deaths still continue unabated, but that is because they have become the primary target of our enemy. Iraqi forces are working hand-in-hand with coalition forces, sometimes even taking the lead in operations, and are performing magnificently. General Petreus has said that there is marked improvement by the Iraqis, but that they still are not up to par. Many units still have problems, and we are working on getting rid of the infiltrated ranks, and getting the new recruits up to snuff. Hundreds of al Qaeda terrorists have been killed. Dozens have been captured, including a few key, high-ranking commanders, and their foreign enablers. Among those captured include one Hezbollah bomb-maker, and seventy-two Iranians either identified with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard or their Quds force. As our forces have worked their way through Iraq, success has followed. Many of the towns and provinces that had problems and escalating violence are now virtually quelled.

Where there is success in security, the success transfers to the "true" local level. Prior to the surge, and due mostly because of our previous strategies, the Iraqi people had grown distrustful of US forces. This shouldn't have happened because we need the population as much as they need us. But as our initial strategy failed, and al Qaeda and insurgents were allowed to move back into these places, the people literally became "live-in" hostages. Our enemy introduced brutal tactics to contain a town once they moved in, and usually consisted of the murder and beheading of able-bodied men that could prove to be a problem to their plans. An intimidated populace is one that is easily controlled. But the new strategy of clear and secure is working to bring back the faith and hope the Iraqis originally had placed in us. The populace of these towns and provinces are coming forward with operational and actionable intelligence. they're volunteering to help us as translators and mediators. This, above anything else, is the sort of success we needed to eliminate al Qaeda in Iraq. If the people are intimidated or even somewhat sympathetic (as some Sunni communities were), the strategy would have failed. But we have shown them that this time we're not moving on. We're staying to maintain security and prevent a relapse of the mistakes from earlier in the war.

When the people are confident, then so are their officials. That is where the political success is focused right now. The local leadership and government are seeing to the needs of the community, including the reestablishment of water lines, electricity, and sewage systems. This was expected once the surge reached full strength in mid June, and has since executed full combat operations in mid July. The surge, in essence, was to provide enough security for the officials in Iraq -- both at the local and national levels -- to deal with their problems, find solutions, and build a cohesive government. Now it has not happened nearly as much on the national level as was expected, but they did take a recess from the Parliament in the beginning of August. Information coming out of Iraq shows that even though they they are in recess, they are talking, and working on a number of issues still confronting the fledgling government. But with the success of the surge thus far, it is expected that when they return they will finally have enough breathing room to work on the problems they left unresolved. But the local governments are making it clear that they are not waiting for the national government to act. They are dealing with the problems they have now.

The military side of success has been greeted with a new ally, and one that many believed would never come around. Many of the sect-based militias -- those controlled by Sunnis, Shi'ites, and Kurds -- are turning against their former allies in al Qaeda. One of the largest in Iraq, commanded by Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri, is the banned Ba'ath party who just recently reached an agreement with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to swear allegiance to the new government, and work with Iraqi and US forces to hunt down and eradicate the al Qaeda presence in Iraq. The insurgency has started to turn against al Qaeda for two reasons. First, they don't share the same vision of a caliphate state as al Qaeda does. Secondly, the barbarism of al Qaeda has made many of them sick of the fighting. But instead of laying down their arms completely, they are joining the ranks of the military, and working with military forces in rooting al Qaeda out of it's hiding places. They helped int he capture of the Hezbollah bomb maker and they also helped with the capture of many al Qaeda commanders. They finally realized that, even though they may not like us there, we are working towards the same goal -- the elimination of the al Qaeda presence in Iraq and their ability to wage a terror war within their borders. Likewise, the Mahdi militia is helping us when it comes to getting rid of the al Qaeda presence in areas they control loosely. This is a one hundred eighty degree turnaround from where things were a year ago.

By no means are we saying that Iraq is steady and stable. General Jack Keane and General David Petraeus have stated that they have a long way to go, but the measure of success thus far is important to note. Baghdad, Baquba, Diyala, Anbar, Mosul, Ramadi, Babil -- they were all reported hot spots for violence and terror a year ago. Now they are, for the most part, quelled and cleaned of an al-Qaeda presence. Life is coming back to those areas, and it is finally starting to come to some sort of normalcy. There is the occasional outbreak of violence in these places, but it is rare, and immediately dealt with by the forces there. The largest problems these communities and provinces face is maintaining electricity and water. They are no longer intimidated by our enemy, but rather they are emboldened to take them on by informing us of where they are and what sort of trouble they are starting. Political business at the local level is moving at a rate much quicker than on the national level, but those in Parliament have not forgotten their responsibilities to the people. They are working at correcting the problems. It is our opinion that the surge should be allowed to continue up through Spring of 2008. Success will only continue as it progresses, and the longer it progresses, the more al-Qaeda will continue to lose. It would be unwise to cease operations in favor of a draw down of troops which will lead to an increase in violence. the Iraqis need to know that we mean business, and that they must help us to achieve security and stability. Thus far, they understand it, and morale could not be higher for both sides with the initiation of this strategy.

He is a scholar of history, especially American history, and the United States Constitution. She has finished her undergrad studies, graduating with a BA in English and history and will move onto law school this fall where she will specialize in Constitutional Law. Together, Thomas and Marcie form the vanguard of conservative opinion at Hamilton, Madison, and Jay -- a blogging site devoted to advancing the conservative cause by challenging the liberal lies and deceit spread by the media, and espoused by the Left in general. Both are expert debaters, and have beaten many liberals into submission with their collective wit, and unmatched knowledge. The pair is married, and resides in Arizona

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