Fathers, Sons, and Senators
Dad, can I borrow your Senate
seat?
One of the great hopes of the Democratic Party in
this year’s election cycle is to win back the Senate. The
last time Democrats held the upper hand in the upper house of
Congress, was when former Majority Leader Tom Daschle persuaded
former Republican Senator Jim Jeffords (I-VT) to caucus with the
Democrats in 2001.
Ah, but how the doings of those bereft of principle, honor--and
loyalty--revisit those who would turn away from such attributes
for personal gain. By the next election in 2002, Senator Jeffords,
or “Jumpin' Jim” as he was called by some, was in
the minority with the Democrats—relegated even more so to
the back bench as he soon lost his party-switching appeal.
Since those turbulent early days of the Bush administration,
the GOP has steadily increased its numbers in the Senate significantly.
After the 2004 elections, Republicans jumped to a 55 to 45 seat
majority. Though it is not filibuster-proof, it is the best margin
of dominance the GOP has had since 1998.
So what to expect this year? There will be 33 Senate contests--18
seats (including Jeffords’ seat) up for Democrats, and 15
for Republicans--and most seats are probably decided already.
For instance, no one truly expects to unseat incumbents like Diane
Feinstein, (D-CA) or Trent Lott, (R-MS). As usual, the gang over
at Realclearpolitics.com has a stunning array of information and
insight regarding the upcoming elections. (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Commentary/blog_11_8_04.html)
So expect the Clintons, Kennedys, Allens, and Lugars to survive
any and all challenges. But the same cannot be said for two other
Senate races worth watching.
Conservative favorite Rick Santorum, (R-PA), is in the fight
of his life against Pennsylvania State Treasurer Robert P. Casey
Jr., the son of the late and near-iconic Pennsylvania governor,
Bob Casey. Casey’s campaign has been one of near-invisibility--saying
little and doing even less. But to date, the strategy of “do-nothing
campaigning” has paid off.
Because of the very long and illustrious coattails of his father,
who died in May of 2000, Junior finds himself in the enviable
position of living off a legacy. Certainly, it seems as much,
as Casey the junior has said little in the way of policy, and
even less in answering direct questions.
Presently, Casey leads in the race for a seat that has not been
filled by a Democrat since 1962. Though Santorum, the GOP’s
number three in the leadership lineup of the Senate, has bounced
back in recent weeks, he still faces an uphill climb.
The latest Quinnipiac University Poll conducted from November
30 - December 6, 2005, shows Santorum gaining ground, but still
12 points below the magical 50% rating—a very important
number for an incumbent. (http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/05348/621913.stm)
Though the race in Pennsylvania may not be indicative to what
this year’s elections hold in store for the GOP, it is a
fair indicator of the evolving political stripe of the Northeast
in general, where RINOs, if not plentiful in sheer numbers when
compared to Democrats, are nevertheless a sizable bunch.
But the more things change, they say, the more they stay the
same. Further south, down the turnpike a ways, the big Democrat
machine of New Jersey may be in line for just such a change. Looking
at New Jersey and its history as being a bastion of corruption
run by Democrats for Democrats, who could have predicted that
there would be a competitive race for the U.S. Senate?
One-time New Jersey Congressman Robert Menendez (D-NJ) was recently
sworn in to complete the term of newly elected governor Jon Corzine.
Menendez, who now owns the honor of becoming New Jersey’s
first Hispanic to represent the state in the U.S. Senate, will
be going up against a candidate who also has the luxury of being
the son of a legacy-intact father.
Menendez will have to stave off the genuine threat of state Sen.
Thomas H. Kean Jr., the son of former and well-liked New Jersey
governor Thomas H. Kean. Kean the senior, as many will recall,
was chairman of the 9/11 Commission. Kean was also recognized
as the “Best governor of New Jersey” by a recent poll
done by Fairleigh Dickinson University. (http://publicmind.fdu.edu/bestworst/)
How does this help Tommy Boy? Well, in this day and age of “Of
course you know who my father was, don’t you?”--quite
a bit. In the latest Fairleigh Dickinson University poll, Kean
leads Menendez 36 percent to 25 percent. (http://1010wins.com/topstories/local_story_016070510.html)
When you see those numbers, realize that 37% do not yet know
who they will support. However, also realize that the last elected
Republican to represent New Jersey in the U.S. Senate was the
late Clifford Case in 1979. For the National Democratic Party
and Menendez specifically, none of these numbers are encouraging,
not even that 37% number.
Given the name recognition alone of Tom Kean and the premise
that New Jerseyites may be saying it is time for a change, the
GOP may be able to send a Republican from New Jersey to the Senate
for the first time in 26 years.
There are a few other Senate races worth watching, and every
one of them is important. But there are few races where the specter
of a famous father--both living and dead--plays such a prominent
role in the elections of their sons.
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