As the World Turns

Where are we? Where are we going?

My, the world has changed quickly over the past 20 years.

Twenty years ago our collective attention was absorbed by the death spiral of the Soviet Empire, watching with fascination as the curtain came down on the final act of the Industrial Era.

Ten years ago we were reveling in the midst of our Holiday from History.

Today, as we turn yet another year over, it is worth a pause to think about where the world is going and how our role in it may change as we hurtle into the Information Era.

The first thing that is clear to me is that there is no evidence at all to assume that democracy in general, and democratic capitalism in particular, is the model that will succeed over the next 100 years. There are many competing influences buried in the human heart. The desire for freedom and autonomy is certainly one of them. But there is no evidence that I am aware of to indicate that they are preeminent desires. It is distressingly easy to convince people that these desires are “luxuries,” things that cannot afford to interfere with the truly important imperatives of existence.

I believe that we are seeing Europe talk itself out of democracy as we watch. The whole notion of a “European Union” is anti-democratic. It seeks to replace representative democracy with bureaucracy and kleptocracy. Faced with the continuing stresses of immigration, irreligion, demographic imbalance, and a significant lack of cultural self-confidence, I fear we will in our lifetimes see the demise of “old Europe”, and massive “brain drain” to freer parts of the world.

“New Europe” on the other hand seems to have a bright short term future. Nothing like 40 or 50 years of brutal communist oppression to give one an appreciation for freedom. The former Soviet Bloc countries – plus Ireland – seem poised for several decades of growth and freedom as they take advantage of Information Age potential. A smart America will seek to leverage their energy and their friendship.

Russia, on the other hand, is poised with one leg firmly in the dustbin of history. There is nothing about Russia, its people or government which provides hope for the future. Look for Russia to become more unstable and oppressive as it continues to diminish.

And then there is Africa. Poor, poor Africa. I wish that we could look at that benighted continent and feel a sense of optimism for its long suffering peoples. Alas, we cannot. Due to factors with long roots in its history, geography and culture, most of Africa is too far away from modernity to adapt smoothly to its gifts. A huge cultural rearranging is required. That will take a long time, and will probably involve considerable upheaval before it gains actual traction. This will need to occur in the context of at least moderate continuing pressure from the Muslim North African nations, who are burdened with their own goblins. I believe it may take as much as 50-75 years before Africa is ready for modernity.

Not a very optimistic jaunt so far. Unlikely to get much better as we look at the near and middle East, and the specter of militant Islam. Despite the uneven and unstable events of the past decade, it remains my belief that the current militant strains of Islam represent the death spasms of a culture unable to adapt to modernity. It won’t be a quick death, and it will be prolonged by the flow of oil revenues, but it is inevitable. Within 30 or 40 years we will see a new brand of modern, stable, Islamic nation-states that have figured out how to live in peace with modernity. Not democracy per se, nor freedom in the Western sense, but stable modern countries with a semblance of the rule of law. We just need to understand how to manage the danger between now and then. I see a continued, shifting “balance of power” strategy for years ahead as the threat morphs in response to our actions, and vice versa.

As we move to Asia the picture gets somewhat brighter. India has emerged as the brightest star on the eastern horizon, and for good reason. India has a culture that has adapted very well to the Information Age, and there is every reason to believe they will continue to grow and thrive and serve as a South Asian counterpoint to China. I think both in India and the “Asian Tigers” we will see the continued evolution of semi-democratic societies that preserve basic freedoms while honoring the traditional Asian structures. They will not be U.S. lapdogs, and they may on occasion cause us trouble. But on net they will provide a source of stability.

Which brings us to China. What will we have 20 years hence? Will we have a U.S./China bipolar world? Or will we have a China still struggling to find her identity? I suspect the latter. I think the size and energy of China unleashed will pull her in a direction that her communist handlers cannot tolerate. An unstable back-and-forth energy will be created in which alternative power centers emerge, only to be brought back into line – or perhaps not. This will be tricky stuff. A large, dangerous, unstable animal is something to be handled with care. The best case scenario is that China ultimately evolves in the same semi-free direction as other Asian nations. It will remain a threat.

As we round the International Date Line and head south, we come to the puzzle of Central and South America. I confess to being no Nostradamus, but I find it hard to envision a world in which South America is anything other than an unstable, alternately comical and dangerous place. Every so often a Castro or Chavez will pop up to lead a foolish and romantic people astray.

Both Canada and Mexico will face stark choices soon. Canada must decide if it wishes to follow Europe into the void, or become content being a little brother to the U.S. It sure seems to be leaning towards European mediocrity, but it will have plenty of chances to decide otherwise. Mexico just begs to become its own economic power. But it has several centuries of culture to overcome to get there.

Here in the good old U.S. of A. I don’t see drastic or dramatic changes in our nature or purpose. We will continue to struggle with integrating the realities of the Information Era with our traditions, and we will succeed. We will not give up our freedoms. We will keep our traditions. We will continue to lead the world for the foreseeable future. And we will be resented for it for the foreseeable future. We need to avoid leaders who wish to change the world to our liking, and who think we can ignore the world around us. It is a little hard to imagine at the moment, but I think President Bush’s foreign policy will serve as the model for our future.

And the last thing I can say with certainty about our future world? The global warming hysteria will be properly defined as an utter irrelevancy within 5-7 years.

Archives of "The View from the Ground"

Send an e mail to Patrick J. Shanahan

Visit his website at: